marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
141 PM PDT Sat may 18 2013
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The ltst GOES vis imgry indc a wkng cdfnt acrs the nrn pz6 and srn
pz5 wtrs attm...and high pres W of the c cal wtrs. The WV imgry
indc a slowly amplifying upr rdg nr 130w...and drifting E. The
12z guid indc the h5 hgts wl rise ovr the cal coast tngt into MN
as the upr rdg moves E...enhancing the thrml trof. Gales are
xpctd to begin sun aftn in the strengthening pres grad nr pt
Arena...altho mdls are still mrgnl and the GFS has been staying on
the cusp of gl frc. Plan on still carrying gales...tho confdc is
low to MDT with them.
12z GFS still cont to be outlier with low movg into the ofshr wtrs
Mon ngt and Tue...as it takes the low thru the pz5 wtrs and incrs
the wnds to gl frc ovr pz5. The rest of the 12z guid favors a
track that keeps the gales W of the area...SW of the GFS track.
The upr energy indc the assoc shrtwv FM SW wl get picked up by
upr trof...tho aside FM GFS rest of guid digs the trof more S.
Attm preferring the 12z ECMWF soln on Tue...as confdc with gales
is vry low. After cd surge FM shrtwv...mxg wl be enhanced by
destabilized environ...and wnds xpctd to incrs to gl frc off cal
coast again...with low to MDT confdc due to the rng and again
mrgnl nature as depicted by mdls. Wl hav gales ovr the nrn and c
cal wtrs late Tue and Wed...and expand into the srn cal wtrs r pt
Conception Wed as sfc rdg axis drifts S. Mdls also indc a cd low
movg off the nrn coast Wed and Thu...incrsg the wnds ovr the N ptn
in the stg grad btwn the high and the new low. ECMWF is an outlier
taking it to the S faster than the rest of guid. Attm preferring
the UKMET/GFS compromise ovr the N pttn for Wed and Thu.
Seas...staying close to 12z mww3 soln...however switching to 12z
ECMWF wave Tue into Wed in conjuction with preferred wx mdl
soln...then back to mww3 Wed and Thu as ECMWF bcms outlier.
Also...boosting seas late Tue into Wed with gales alng cal
coast...as guid seems slow to build.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be
coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters...
.Cape Flattery to Cape Lookout...none.
.Cape Lookout to Pt St George...None.
.Pz6 California waters...
.Pt St George to pt Arena...gale sun into Mon...then gale Tue
into Wed...low to MDT confdc.
.Pt Arena to pt Conception...Gale sun into Mon...then gale Tue
into Wed...low to MDT confdc.
.Pt Conception to Guadalupe island...Gale Wed into Thu...low to
MDT confdc.
$$