marine weather discussion NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 800 PM EST Sat 21 Nov 2009

.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.

Will likely edge up winds just S and SW of Cape Hatteras to 20 to 30 kt with this evenings nt2 update...based on this mornings ascat pass. And have not seen any diminishing trend at buoys NC/SC coasts over past few hrs. Any slight change to overngt forecast will hinge on upcoming Quikscat tho. Models still having difficulty with strength/track of cstl sfc low Mon/Tue. 18z NAM now takes weak sfc center just inland appearing close to GFS runs of day or so ago...while 18z GFS also lacked consistency with its previous run no longer brining initial weak low thru new engl waters. Still leaning twrd ECMWF/Canadian compromise which have been most exhibited most run to run consistency of late. Canadian still appears too strong with winds. Will leave winds below gale with this evenings update...but possibility still exists mainly new engl waters given strength of ridge over New Brunswick/ Canadian Maritimes...and pres gradient even shown by latest gefs and ECMWF ensmbl means.

Wavewatch iii looks within a ft of 00z ship/buoy obs over most of W Atlc. Exception is near the entrance of glf of St Lawrence where 12 ft buoy well above 8 ft advertised by wavewatch.

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Low pres currently E of the nt2 waters will move slowly NE today and tonight. N to NE winds up to 25 kt will continue across portions of the srn and central nt2 waters into tonight. Strong high pres will then build N of the nt1 waters sun. Weak low pres is still expected to form across the srn nt2 waters Sun night...then track NE across the offshore waters through Wed. The latest runs of the NAM and GFS are in reasonable agreement and continue the idea of the last couple of model runs in having somewhat weaker winds across the offshore waters. The Canadian...meanwhile...continues to be a strong outlier. For now will continue with previous forecast of showing Max winds of 30 kt with this system as it moves NE. A cold front will then move into the offshore waters by Thu.

The wavewatch model looks reasonable and will be followed fairly closely during the forecast period. The E swell which wavewatch iii brings into nern nt2 waters as well as Georges Bank sun ngt/Mon appears reasonable as global models all indicating decent E to NE fetch N of W Atlc cold front.

.Warnings/forecast confidence...Warnings are preliminary and are subject to change. Any changes will be coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone.

.Nt1 New England waters... .Gulf of Maine...none. .Georges Bank...None. .S of New England...None.

.Nt2 mid Atlc waters... .Hudson to balt cnyn...none. .Balt cnyn to Hague line...None. .Balt cnyn to Hatteras cnyn...None. .Hatteras cnyn to Cape Fear...None. .Cape Fear to 31n...None.

.Forecaster Clark/nolt. Ocean forecast branch.