marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC
155 am EDT Thu 20 Jun 2013
.Forecast discussion: major features/winds/seas/significant
.Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
01z and 02z hi res ascat passes returned NE 15 to 20 kt
extending as far N of cold front as entire balt cnyn to Hague
line and balt to Hatteras cnyns offshore zones. The 20 kt
returns are more expansive than indicated by 00z guidance. With
the exception of the ongoing convection over mid Atlc offshore
waters S of Hatteras cnyn...will generally be a quiet wx pattern
over the far W Atlc for the next several days. Other than some
detail differences by the weekend...00z mdls are in quite good
agreement. 00z GFS is mdl of choice thru Fri ngt...and has been
consistent over past few runs in being slightly stronger with NE
winds alng NC/SC coasts from Hatteras to just S of Cape Fear
tda. Nearby buoys have already reported winds 20 g 25 kt last
few hrs. Mdls all indicate that shud see weak sfc low dlvp alng
stnry front se of Cape Lookout NC tngt and will slowly drift N
Fri and Fri ngt. As has been the case over the past couple days
ECMWF/UKMET have been weaker with this feature than GFS/NAM/Gem
global. Opc preference will continue with weaker solution
limiting assoc winds to 15 kt or so. High pres ridge shud then
slide S thru mid Atlc waters Sat thru Mon...and mdls in
agreement that winds shud remain 15 kt or less.
Over new engl waters Sat thru Mon 00z GFS/NAM and of course 00z
Gem global all continued to appear over done with SW winds ahead
of approaching weak cold front Sat...and will blend 00z GFS and
19/12z ECMWF to tone down 25 kt winds shown by GFS over glf of
ME. Also GFS/Gem global are lone mdls to move front offshore Sat
ngt into sun. Per 00z UKMET and 19/12z ECMWF will maintain SW
winds over all new engl zones Sat/sun. By Mon again am favoring
weaker UKMET/ECMWF and will limit SW winds to 15 or 20 kt Max.
00z multigrid wavewatch iii has been in good agreement with W
Atlc ship/buoy obs over past few hrs...and looks reasonable thru
Fri ngt. Then prefer 12z ECMWF WV mdl and its lower sig WV hgts
over new engl waters Sat thru Mon.
Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Warnings/forecast confidence...Preliminary. Any changes will be
coordinated through AWIPS 12 planet chat or by telephone:
.Nt1 New England waters...
.Gulf of Maine...none.
.South of New England...None.
.Nt2 mid Atlc waters...
.Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon...none.
.Baltimore Canyon to Hague line...None.
.Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon...None.
.Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear...None.
.Cape Fear to 31n...None.